Oh man, this is where it all gets serious.
With the Shrine Bowl, Senior Bowl and NFL scouting combine in the rearview mirror, it’s time to shift our mock draft focus from “what I would do” to “what we think will happen” as to best predict how we see things shaking out on draft weekend.
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Given that it is free agency week, which will change what team needs might be at the end of April, I’m trying something new with this mock and making it its own living entity. As teams decide to sign or not sign certain players, I’ll come back here to update this mock draft with new selections that might be more in play with the changing roster. I’ll update it after major moves we know will affect the first round, or each morning of free agency week, whichever comes first.
Make sure you bookmark this and revisit it throughout the week.
Last update: 4:00 p.m. ET Sunday, March 13
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: EDGE AIDAN HUTCHINSON, MICHIGAN
Though this top pick still feels like a three-man race between Hutchinson, Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu, due to the Jaguars giving Cam Robinson the franchise tag, it feels like Hutchinson is back in the driver’s seat for the top pick.
PFF is teaming up with Aidan Hutchinson and Radegen Sports on a podcast series to be released in April 2022. The series will take a deeper look into Aidan’s early years at Michigan, his incredible 2021 season, and how he’s preparing for the 2022 NFL Draft.
2. DETROIT LIONS: S KYLE HAMILTON, NOTRE DAME
With Hutchinson off the board, there is no obvious pick for the Lions. Months ago, it would have been Kayvon Thibodeaux, but I just don’t think the league is as high on him as the media. Hamilton’s combine performance wasn’t “out of this world,” but it certainly shouldn’t hurt one of the most versatile players in the class who we’ve heard receive unanimous praise from league sources.
3. HOUSTON TEXANS: OT EVAN NEAL, ALABAMA
Rumor has it the Texans are trying to trade Laremy Tunsil to get out of his big contract. If they are successful in doing so, they’ll need an immediate replacement. I think they’ll opt for Neal.
4. NEW YORK JETS: OT IKEM EKWONU, N.C. STATE
Ekwonu had a really impressive combine week — both at the podium and on the field during drills. He’s in contention for the No. 1 overall pick and shouldn’t get past the Jets at No. 4, at the latest.
5. NEW YORK GIANTS: EDGE JERMAINE JOHNSON, FLORIDA STATE
One of the biggest risers in this draft class kept that momentum going at the combine. Johnson has proven throughout this process that he’s a total package edge player and one of the best players in the draft.
6. CAROLINA PANTHERS: OT CHARLES CROSS, MISSISSIPPI STATE
This pick is a wildcard. The Panthers need a quarterback more than anything, but no quarterback in this class is saving them as a rookie. If they look elsewhere, it has to be the offensive line, mainly an offensive tackle.
7. NEW YORK GIANTS (via CHI): OT TREVOR PENNING, NORTHERN IOWA
Something Giants new GM Joe Schoen emphasized multiple times at his combine presser was the qualities of offensive linemen being “smart, tough and dependable.” He went on to detail traits of speed and strength. Now, any coach would want those qualities but after seeing Penning impress athletically at the combine, it makes me think he could be very high on their list.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS: EDGE TRAVON WALKER, GEORGIA
Walker made combine history with his 4.51-second 40-yard dash at 272 pounds. And that’s on top of his 6-foot-5 frame and 35.5-inch arms. It feels like he was truly built in a lab. It certainly feels like he’s a top-10 lock who could go even higher than this.
9. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: EDGE KAYVON THIBODEAUX, OREGON
Though I was impressed with Thibodeaux’s presence at the combine, the league remains mixed on where to draft him. With Seattle gaining a first-round pick from the Russell Wilson deal, he could be the kind of player who lures them away from the QB class.
10. NEW YORK JETS: CB AHMAD “SAUCE” GARDNER, CINCINNATI
Gardner is another player who is poised to be selected top 10 after a great combine showing. He’s big, fast, confident and has the tape to match all the hype. He could go earlier than this, but the Jets would jump at the chance to grab him here.
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11. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: WR DRAKE LONDON, USC
Washington sending two third round picks to Indianapolis for Carson Wentz likely means quarterback is off the board here. What shouldn’t be is a dominant “X” receiver who can complement Terry McLaurin and the rest of the skill position group.
12. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: EDGE DAVID OJABO, MICHIGAN
Minnesota’s big needs are defensive line and cornerback. New Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah comes from a data-driven background. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t understand more of the “football” side of things – he does — but for someone with his background, I have a hard time believing he’ll use his first premium pick on a limited player.
At corner, Trent McDuffie and Derek Stingley are two good talent options here, but McDuffie’s size profile might limit him in the league, and it’s unknown how Stingley will play after his Lisfranc injury. With that in mind, I believe Minnesota will target Ojabo. He isn’t the most refined prospect, but his size and athletic profiles present a very high ceiling as a full-time edge player.
Perhaps this is looking a little too much into the details, but that’s what this time of year is about.
13. CLEVELAND BROWNS: WR GARRETT WILSON, OHIO STATE
At this point in the draft, Cleveland could be tempted by a slew of talented players. With the recent addition of Amari Cooper, wide receiver becomes less desperate, but if they move on from Jarvis Landry, it is still one of their biggest needs. Wilson looks to be the best bet in this range.
14. BALTIMORE RAVENS: DT DEVONTE WYATT, GEORGIA
With plenty of uncertainty along Baltimore’s veteran defensive line, drafting Wyatt looks like it could be their best move. George Karflatis and Jordan Davis would also be considered, but I believe Wyatt is Baltimore’s best choice among those three.
15. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: CB DEREK STINGLEY, LSU
A fully healthy Stingley is a top-five draft pick in this class. The reason he’s picked here at No. 15 is because of the unknown coming off surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury – an injury that has been known to derail careers. If a team picking between Nos. 10-15 can get the thumbs up that everything will eventually be fine, they should run the card in, especially the Eagles.
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16. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: WR TREYLON BURKS, ARKANSAS
Back-to-back picks make for a lot of fun with Eagles mocks. Though Burks didn’t have the insane combine performance some proclaimed before the big event, he’s still one of the most gifted receivers in this class. His unique blend of size and speed would be a big time boost to Philadelphia’s offense.
17. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: DT JORDAN DAVIS, GEORGIA
It’s hard to think that a 6-foot-6, 340-pound player who was the best run defender in the country last season and just ran a 4.78-second 40-yard dash at the combine would go out of the top 15. Nonetheless, I really am not sure if the league thinks more highly of him than that – perhaps foolishly, but we’ll see. Regardless, No. 17 is the absolute floor for Davis, especially after Mike Williams’ deal.
18. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: WR JAMESON WILLIAMS, ALABAMA
Williams told us at the combine that his rehab was ahead of schedule, which could put him on a timetable to be back in the early parts of the 2022 season. Though the Saints need to figure out their quarterback situation, they desperately need passing weapons, too.
19. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: EDGE GEORGE KARLAFTIS, PURDUE
The Eagles once again capitalize on a player who was once regarded as a potential top-10 pick, selecting him a little further down the draft order. Karlaftis is a really good player who just doesn’t seem to be as high on boards around the league. If he goes in the back half of the first round, whichever team selects him could get a big-time steal.
20. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: QB MALIK WILLIS, LIBERTY
I believe Willis will be the top quarterback picked in this draft, but I just don’t know where. The Steelers interest in Willis is real, and whether it’s here at No. 20 or potentially in a big trade up, I believe he’s their top target.
2022 NFL Draft position rankings:
Top 10 players at every position
QB | RB | WR | TE | iOL | OT | DI | EDGE | LB | CB | S
21. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: WR CHRIS OLAVE, OHIO STATE
Though his 40-time didn’t end up being the 4.26 seconds that his unofficial time showed, Olave put on a great display of athleticism in Indianapolis and solidified his deep threat ability. The Patriots desperately need a guy like Olave.
22. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: OL KENYON GREEN, TEXAS A&M
Offensive line remains a big area of need for the Raiders, as the right side of their line gave up the most pressure of any line in the NFL. They’ll need to fill a few spots to improve the line, and Green can be a nice versatile chess piece who can fill multiple spots.
23. ARIZONA CARDINALS: G ZION JOHNSON, BOSTON COLLEGE
Johnson is one of the best offensive linemen in this class, but because he plays on the interior, he won’t go as high as that praise warrants. He stood out at the Senior Bowl and also had a very good week at the combine, checking all the boxes of a Year 1 contributor. Arizona needs help upfront, so they’ll gladly jump at this chance if Johnson makes it to them.
24. DALLAS COWBOYS: OT BERNHARD RAIMANN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Chances are that you read Raimann was a bit disappointing athletically at the combine. As a player who was a former tight end, many thought he would’ve run a sub-5.0-second 40-yard dash. Nonetheless, a 5.05-second official time is right near that mark, and his 1.73-second 10-yard split was more important, as it showed his explosiveness out of his stance. Raimann did impress with his strength on the bench press with 30 repetitions. He would be a really good investment for Dallas, whose offensive line is aging and changing.
25. BUFFALO BILLS: CB TRENT McDUFFIE, WASHINGTON
The Bills will definitely look to add to their defensive line with their premium picks. In fact, I think that is where their eyes will go first. Nevertheless, if the draft fallas this way and McDuffie is still on the board, pairing Tre’Davious White and McDuffie as the team’s Nos. 1 and 2 CBs in front of one of the best safety tandems in the NFL might be too tempting to pass up.
26. TENNESSEE TITANS: OT TYLER SMITH, TULSA
Smith is an offensive lineman who is still raw in how he unleashes his gifted strength and athleticism. Nonetheless, he’s mean and loves to bury his opponents. The Titans have always gravitated toward those kinds of players in their trenches.
27. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: C TYLER LINDERBAUM, IOWA
It seems crazy to me that a player whose evaluation is as clean as Linderbaum’s could fall this far in the draft. If you look around the league, you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who has a bad word to say about him or his tape. Nonetheless, It feels like being undersized – bottom 10 percentile for height, weight and arm length – could push him down the board.
Even with Ryan Jensen back, the Bucs will still need to fill at least one, maybe two guard spots. Linderbaum is good enough of a player to make the switch to left or right guard
28. GREEN BAY PACKERS: LB DEVIN LLOYD, UTAH
The Packers haven’t used a premium pick on an off-ball linebacker in a while. This would be uncharacteristic of them, but Lloyd is a fantastic all-around player who has only gotten better with every year of starting time.
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29. MIAMI DOLPHINS (via SF): RB BREECE HALL, IOWA STATE
I can already see the replies and comments. Yes, I know that no running back can be productive behind a bad offensive line. However, picking an offensive lineman here feels like a reach, at least as the league sees the guys who are still on the board. Hall’s combine performance put him at RB1 in this class.
30. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S LEWIS CINE, GEORGIA
There are a handful of safeties who could all be good options for the Chiefs at the back end of the first round, but with Cine’s 4.38-second 40-yard dash, 36.5-inch vertical jump and 11-foot-1-inch broad jump, he’s likely the second safety off the board after Hamilton.
31. CINCINNATI BENGALS: CB KAIIR ELAM, FLORIDA
Elam really surprised people when he ran an official 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the combine. For a 6-foot-1 corner who has long arms and loves to play press-man coverage, speed was really his only major concern. The Bengals will have their eyes on upgrading the offensive line, if available, but with no good options, look for them to address defense.
32. DETROIT LIONS: LB NAKOBE DEAN, GEORGIA
The only linebacker currently under contract for the Lions that has played significant snaps is Derrick Barnes. As the centerpiece of that historic Georgia defense, Dean feels like the kind of player this Lions staff will love.
